SA vs AUS Match Prediction : 1st ODI, Australia tour of South Africa, 2026
SA vs AUS Win Probability
44%
South Africa
56%
Australia
Australia To Win, 1.70
South Africa has lost 5 of its last 6 ODIs at home
Both teams are similar in batting strength but Australia's pace bowling seems superior
The conditions in South Africa are the kind that the Aussie batters will enjoy
SA vs AUS Betting Tips
Cooper Connolly to score over 25.5 runs
Cooper Connolly has been Australia's leading run-scorer this year, with 337 runs to his name. He has scored at least 26 runs in four of his last six matches, including a century and two half-centuries. With Connolly in good form and likely to play an important role in Australia's middle order, we are backing him to score another substantial contribution.
Highest individual score over 102.5
Five of the last eight matches played at this venue have featured at least one individual score of 102 runs or more. Both teams possess several high-quality batters who are capable of converting starts into big scores. With the surface expected to become easier to bat on once the initial movement subsides, we expect at least one batter to produce a major innings.
Team form (Last 5 matches)
South Africa
N/A
Australia
N/A
Australia are currently on a 35-day tour of South Africa, where they will face the hosts in a three-match ODI series followed by three Tests. The first ODI will be played at Kingsmead in Durban on Thursday, with Australia looking to build on their strong recent form and take an early lead in the series.
South Africa vs Australia Head-to-Head Record
South Africa has won six of the last 10 ODI meetings between the two sides, while Australia has won four. However, Australia will take confidence from their recent form heading into this series.
SA vs AUS Team Previews
South Africa
South Africa have played just four ODIs this year, all coming against Namibia, whom they swept comfortably. However, Australia represent a significantly tougher challenge, and the hosts will need to be at their best from the opening ball.
South Africa have named a near full-strength squad for the series, but injuries have weakened their bowling attack. All three of their frontline seamers, Kagiso Rabada, Ottneil Baartman, and Lungi Ngidi, have been ruled out. This places additional responsibility on Gerald Coetzee, the most experienced fast bowler available to the hosts, who is making his comeback after more than three years.
Coetzee will have support from a talented but relatively inexperienced group of quicks, including Duan Jansen, Kwena Maphaka, and Nqobani Mokoena. Keshav Maharaj will lead the spin attack, with Bjorn Fortuin also available as cover.
South Africa's biggest strength could be their batting depth. Temba Bavuma, Quinton de Kock, David Miller, Tristan Stubbs, Tony de Zorzi, and Ryan Rickelton give them plenty of experience and quality throughout the top and middle order. They also have several capable all-rounders in Aiden Markram, Corbin Bosch, and Marco Jansen, providing additional depth with the bat.
South Africa Expected Playing 11
Temba Bavuma (C), Quinton de Kock, Ryan Rickelton, Aiden Markram, David Miller, Marco Jansen, Tristan Stubbs, Keshav Maharaj, Gerald Coetzee, Kwena Maphaka, Duan Jansen
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Australia
Australia will enter the series with plenty of confidence after completing a clean sweep against Zimbabwe. However, they will know that South Africa pose a much tougher challenge and will be keen to make a strong start to the tour.
Australia have made two changes to the squad that faced Zimbabwe. Billy Stanlake has been ruled out with an injury and has been replaced by all-rounder Edwards, while Spencer Johnson has been rested.
The visitors have a formidable pace attack at their disposal, with Mitchell Starc and Pat Cummins joining the squad. Josh Hazlewood, Xavier Bartlett, and Nathan Ellis provide further options with the ball, while Adam Zampa will lead the spin department.
Australia also have considerable batting firepower. Travis Head and Mitchell Marsh are expected to lead the way at the top of the order, while Cooper Connolly, Matt Renshaw, Josh Inglis, and Alex Carey have all shown good form and will be looking to make significant contributions.
Australia Expected Playing 11
Mitchell Marsh, Travis Head, Josh Inglis (WK), Alex Carey, Cooper Connolly, Matt Renshaw, Pat Cummins (C), Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood, Adam Zampa, Cameron Green
SA vs AUS Toss Prediction
There has been an even split between teams batting first and those chasing at this venue. With the new ball expected to offer some assistance to the seamers, we expect the captain winning the toss to prefer bowling first and making use of the early conditions.
Pitch Report and Weather Conditions
The Kingsmead surface traditionally offers assistance to the quicker bowlers, particularly with the new ball. Seam movement both off the pitch and through the air can make the early overs challenging for batters, who will need to show patience and focus on rotating the strike rather than immediately looking for big shots.
The average first-innings score in the last 10 matches at the venue is around 265, although the team batting first will ideally want to push towards the 300-run mark to put scoreboard pressure on the opposition.
Cloudy conditions and pleasant temperatures are expected in Durban, which could provide further assistance to the seamers during the opening stages.
SA vs AUS : Who Will Win?
South Africa and Australia are two strong ODI sides, so this should be a competitive contest. However, we are backing Australia to come out on top based on their recent form and the greater depth available in their bowling attack.
Australia have several world-class fast bowlers at their disposal, and the conditions at Kingsmead could allow them to make the most of that strength.
Bet on Australia to win.
