SUS vs SUR Match Prediction, T20 Blast 2026
SUSS vs SURR Win Probability
34%
Sussex
66%
Surrey
Surrey To Win, 1.53
Surrey have the stronger batting depth and are better equipped to build a competitive total and defend it.
Sussex can be vulnerable when their top order is disrupted early, which gives Surrey a clear route into the game.
Surrey look like the more reliable side to control the key phases and edge out a competitive T20 contest.
SUSS vs SURR Betting Tips
Sussex total team runs under 165.5
Sussex can be aggressive with the bat, but they have also been exposed when early wickets fall. If Surrey strike early and keep their run rate down through the middle overs, this under looks like a solid angle.
Surrey to score over 57.5 runs in the first 6 overs
Surrey have a top order that is built to attack the powerplay and use the fielding restrictions effectively. If they get a clean start, they can put immediate pressure on Sussex and set a strong platform for the middle overs.
Team form (Last 5 matches)
Sussex
Surrey
Sussex host Surrey at The 1st Central County Ground Hove in a high-stakes South Group clash. Sussex arrive with a mixed run, snapping a slide by beating Kent by 7 wickets on June 7.
Surrey have been hot-and-cold, mixing strong wins over Middlesex with narrow defeats to Hampshire. Both sides need momentum as the mid-group scramble tightens, and this derby feel should lift the intensity.
Sussex vs Surrey Head-to-Head Record
Surrey have dominated the recent rivalry, winning four of the last five meetings against Sussex. The margins have often been heavy in Surrey’s favour, including wins by 124, 54, and 48 runs, while Sussex have managed just one victory in that span. The trend points clearly toward Surrey holding a sustained upper hand in this matchup.
SUS vs SUR Team Previews
Sussex
Sussex broke through against Kent with a confident chase, led by John Simpson’s 33 off 22 and Oliver Carter’s brisk 32 off 19. Tom Clark has finished strongly of late, hammering 79 off 29 and 31 off 13 across his last two outings. James Coles adds middle-order stability with 33 off 27 and 28 off 26 in recent games.
The bowling has bite at the death with Tymal Mills taking 3, 2, and 3 wickets in three of his last four appearances. Sean Hunt’s new-ball returns of 3 wickets and 2 wickets in his last two games bolster the powerplay. Danny Briggs has been consistent with a wicket in each of his last five matches, providing control through the middle overs.
Sussex Expected Playing 11
Tom Clark, John Simpson (WK), Oliver Carter, James Coles, Danny Lamb, Henry Crocombe, Tymal Mills (C), Danny Briggs, Sean Hunt, Jack Carson, Bradley Currie
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Surrey
Surrey’s top order can be devastating when it clicks. Dan Lawrence smashed 94 off 47 in the last game, while Jason Roy struck 46 off 31 in the recent win over Middlesex. Laurie Evans has chipped in with 34 off 21 and 15 off 12 in two of his last three appearances.
With the ball, Jordan Clark has offered control and breakthroughs, taking 2 wickets and 1 wicket in his last two wins. Chris Jordan featured in the latest outing and remains a proven finisher and death-overs option. Surrey’s results have seesawed, but their ceiling remains high when the top order fires.
Surrey Expected Playing 11
Jason Roy, Dan Lawrence (C), Laurie Evans, Adam Thomas, Jordan Clark, Chris Jordan, Josh Blake (WK), Ben Foakes, Jamie Smith, Daniel Worrall, Gus Atkinson
SUS vs SUR Toss Prediction
We expect the toss winner to bowl first. Hove often plays truer under lights, and both sides have recent chasing confidence, with Sussex cruising past Kent and Surrey dismantling Middlesex when batting second.
Pitch Report and Weather Conditions
Hove typically offers a true surface with value for shots and some new-ball nip. Expect skiddy pace under lights with spinners targeting the larger square boundaries. A competitive par sits around the mid-160s, with 175+ increasingly defendable if early wickets fall.
SUS vs SUR: Who Will Win?
We give Surrey a narrow edge on the road based on their dominant head-to-head trend and higher top-order ceiling. Sussex’s bowling trio can shift this quickly, but Surrey’s batting depth tilts the balance. Pro Tip: Back Dan Lawrence for a 25+ runs milestone given his 94 off 47 in the last outing.
Bet on Surrey to win.
