PAK vs SL Match Prediction : 1st Test, Sri Lanka tour of Pakistan, 2026

Pakistan and Sri Lanka begin their two-match Test series in Rawalpindi on November 9, with both teams looking to improve their position in the ICC World Test Championship. Pakistan have home advantage, but their preparations have been far from straightforward, with four late additions to the squad and two players released just days before the opening Test.

Sri Lanka, meanwhile, have a more settled group of experienced Test players, although they will be without opener Pathum Nissanka because of a hamstring injury. With Pakistan facing several questions ahead of the series, this could be an opportunity for Sri Lanka to produce an upset.

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Head-to-Head Record

The historical record clearly favours Pakistan who have won four out of the previous five matches against Sri Lanka.

Pakistan Preview

Pakistan have made a significant overhaul to their Test squad ahead of this series, with Babar Azam returning to captain the side. The most notable changes came just before the opening Test, when the selectors released opener Abdullah Fazal and spinner Ali Usman, bringing in four replacements: Aamer Jamal, Ali Shabbir, Saqib Khan and 20-year-old batter Tayyab Arif. The inclusion of two additional pace bowlers is particularly significant, while Jamal's all-round ability gives Pakistan another option with both bat and ball.

Tayyab has earned his opportunity after an impressive first-class season, scoring 727 runs at an average of 66.09. Saud Shakeel and Salman Ali Agha will be important in the middle order, but there are questions surrounding the overall batting combination.

Babar's recent lack of runs is another concern, particularly given the importance of his contribution to Pakistan's middle order. The pressure on the captain to rediscover his best form could be considerable.

The squad changes also offer a strong indication of Pakistan's intended bowling strategy. Ali Usman's exclusion leaves Arafat Minhas as the only specialist spin option in the 16-man squad, with established home Test spinners Sajid Khan and Noman Ali also absent. Pakistan appear to be moving away from the spin-friendly surfaces used in recent home series and towards a flatter Rawalpindi pitch, where pace and reverse swing could be more important.

Mohammad Abbas brings experience and control, while Aamer Jamal, Ali Shabbir and Saqib Khan add pace options. Jamal's recent performance in the President's Trophy final, where he took 7/32 and scored 55 runs, makes him particularly valuable. However, changing the team's approach to home conditions so close to the series creates uncertainty. Pakistan will need their seamers to deliver consistently and their batters to adapt quickly if this strategy is to work.

Predicted Playing XI

Sri Lanka Preview

Sri Lanka have retained a strong core of experienced Test players for this tour, with Kusal Mendis taking over the captaincy. However, their batting plans have been affected by the confirmed absence of Pathum Nissanka, who failed to recover from a left hamstring injury sustained during the white-ball tour of England in September.

Lahiru Udara has been named as his replacement and is likely to be considered for an opening position. Udara has played five Tests and scored 188 against West Indies in Antigua, demonstrating that he can contribute at this level. Pasindu Sooriyabandara is another option at the top of the order, while Dinesh Chandimal, Kamindu Mendis and Kusal Mendis provide considerable experience in the middle.

Kamindu has been particularly impressive in recent international cricket, while Chandimal remains a dependable player against quality bowling. Dhananjaya de Silva's all-round ability gives the visitors additional flexibility, and the batting unit has enough experience to put pressure on Pakistan if it can negotiate the new ball.

The visitors have a well-balanced bowling attack, with Prabath Jayasuriya leading the spin department. His record against Pakistan makes him an important player to watch, especially if the pitch begins to offer turn later in the match. Dhananjaya de Silva and Kamindu Mendis provide additional spin options, while Asitha Fernando, Lahiru Kumara and Dilshan Madushanka offer pace and movement.

Sri Lanka's bowling resources are particularly interesting given Pakistan's decision to move away from spin-friendly conditions. Asitha and Kumara can challenge the hosts with pace, while Jayasuriya has the experience to exploit any deterioration in the surface. If Sri Lanka can take early wickets and maintain pressure through the middle overs, they have the bowling depth to put Pakistan under considerable pressure.

Predicted Playing XI

Toss Prediction

We expect the captain winning the toss to bat first, aiming to post scoreboard pressure and control the game tempo.

Pitch Report and Weather Conditions

Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium has a reputation for producing high-scoring Test matches, and Pakistan's latest squad changes suggest that the hosts are planning to use those conditions to their advantage.

Pakistan appear keen to avoid playing into Sri Lanka's strength in the spin department, particularly with Prabath Jayasuriya leading their attack. The pitch should offer good batting conditions early in the match, with seamers potentially finding some assistance with the new ball and reverse swing becoming relevant later. Spin could still become important as the surface wears, but it may not dominate proceedings from the outset. A first-innings score above 350 should put either side in a strong position.

The forecast points to mild temperatures around 24 degrees Celsius with scattered clouds, light winds, and moderate humidity, which should enable full days of play with minimal weather disruption.nnRead more about notable cricket venues in our grounds guide.

Our Prediction

This could be an opportunity to back Sri Lanka as the underdogs. Pakistan have home advantage, but their preparations have been far from straightforward, with late squad changes, concerns surrounding Babar Azam's batting form and a significant shift in their approach to pitch preparation. The hosts are attempting to rebuild their Test team while simultaneously changing the conditions they want to play in, which creates uncertainty heading into a five-day contest. Sri Lanka, meanwhile, have a more settled group of experienced Test players and a bowling attack that can exploit different conditions.

Backing the underdog is the way to go here as we are certain you will have the opportunity to hedge your bets through in-play betting as well.

For broader strategy angles on this and other fixtures, see our latest predictions and analytical tips.

Bet on Sri Lanka to win.