ENG vs NZ Match Prediction : 1st Test, New Zealand tour of England, 2026
ENG vs NZ Win Probability
45%
England
23%
Draw
32%
New Zealand
New Zealand To Win, 3.10
Both teams come into this match short of international Test cricket. That equalizes the playing field a lot.
New Zealand's bowling attack is underrated and can surprise the English batters.
England's all-out-attack approach has not worked and we think they may be searching for the 'right'way to play. That confusion can be disastrous.
ENG vs NZ Betting Tips
Joe Root to score more than 34.5 runs
Root remains the undisputed pillar of England’s Test batting and has scored over 930 runs in his last ten matches, highlighting his remarkable consistency at this level. He has an outstanding record against New Zealand, averaging above 50 with six centuries and nine fifties against the Black Caps, which underlines how well he matches up against this attack. Back in familiar home conditions at Lord’s, Root looks well placed to clear a modest 34.5‑run line and deliver a strong return for punters.
Devon Conway to score more than 23.5 runs
Conway’s name is already etched on the Lord’s Honours Board thanks to a brilliant double-century on Test debut at this venue, which shows how naturally his game suits English conditions. He averages close to 45 in Tests played in England, with one double-century and three half-centuries, making him one of New Zealand’s most reliable top-order options here. In the last year alone, he has compiled one double-century, two further hundreds and two fifties, so a line of 23.5 runs feels very achievable for a batter in this kind of touch.
Team form (Last 5 matches)
England
N/A
New Zealand
N/A
England come into this series still searching for a clear red‑ball identity after a bruising 4–1 Ashes defeat across the last Test cycle. New Zealand, in contrast, look like a side on a strong upward curve, unbeaten in this World Test Championship cycle and without a defeat in their last seven Tests. With better recent form, a settled core and conditions that should suit their seamers, the Black Caps look the value pick to take the opening Test.
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England vs New Zealand Head-to-Head Record
New Zealand won the most recent Test between these sides by a huge margin of 423 runs, underlining the gap on that occasion. Across the last five Tests overall, England have three wins and New Zealand have two, showing how competitive this rivalry has become.
England vs New Zealand Live-streaming and Broadcast
- England – Sky Sports Cricket, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Go, NOW
- New Zealand – Sky Sport NZ, Sky Sport Now
- India – Sony Sports Network, SonyLiv, JioHotstar
- Pakistan – PTV Sports, Ten Sports (linear and digital platforms)
- Bangladesh – Sony Sports Network (regional feed), SonyLiv
- Nepal – Sony Sports Network (regional feed), SonyLiv
- USA – Willow TV (TV and streaming)
You can find live odds, updated tips after every day's play, and more information about this match at ocbsports.com.
ENG vs NZ Team Previews
England
England begin this Test series still feeling the impact of a heavy 4–1 Ashes defeat in Australia earlier this year. Captain Ben Stokes has turned to a blend of familiar names and fresh faces, but the squad currently looks more like a team in transition than one building from a position of strength, and five losses in their last six Tests underline that instability.
The top order combines promise with obvious vulnerability. Uncapped Durham opener Emilio Gay could be thrown straight into the deep end alongside Ben Duckett, while the dynamic Jacob Bethell is still learning the demands of Test cricket after debuting with only 20 first‑class matches behind him.
That places a big burden on veteran Joe Root, rising star Harry Brook, skipper Ben Stokes and young wicketkeeper Jamie Smith to repair early damage more often than they would like; Stokes averaged just over 20 with the bat in the Ashes, while Smith’s recent first‑class returns are modest with only 54 runs in his last five innings.
With the Anderson‑Broad era fading, England are still trying to identify a sustainable seam attack for the future. Outside of Gus Atkinson, they are betting heavily on bowlers with fitness or form question marks.
Leg‑spinner Rehan Ahmed has struggled to find consistent rhythm in county and tour matches, Josh Tongue is still working back to his best after injury and will need to rein in a Test economy rate of nearly four runs an over, and rookie quick Sonny Baker could be exposed to the physical and mental demands of a full five‑day workload.
England Expected Playing 11
Emilio Gay, Ben Duckett, Jacob Bethell, Joe Root, Harry Brook, Ben Stokes (c), Jamie Smith (wk), Rehan Ahmed, Gus Atkinson, Sonny Baker, Josh Tongue
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New Zealand
New Zealand arrive in England on a high after thumping Ireland by an innings and 79 runs in Belfast, the perfect tune‑up in similar conditions. Under the calm yet shrewd leadership of Tom Latham, the Black Caps have assembled a wonderfully balanced Test side, blending a prolific batting order with a seam attack tailor‑made for cloudy UK skies.
Their top‑order core remains a major strength. Latham, Devon Conway and Kane Williamson bring vast experience and class, sharing 56 Test centuries between them and providing a rock‑solid platform at the top.
Behind them, the middle order of Rachin Ravindra, Daryl Mitchell and wicketkeeper Tom Blundell is in outstanding form, with Ravindra and Blundell both scoring hundreds against Ireland and Mitchell continuing to be one of the most reliable all‑format batters in world cricket.
The bowling resources are just as impressive. Matt Henry spearheads the attack with relentless accuracy, bounce and seam movement, and his 37 wickets in his last seven Tests illustrate how dangerous he has been recently. All‑rounder Nathan Smith and seamer Blair Tickner also impressed in the Ireland Test, with Smith taking a six‑for in the first innings and Tickner grabbing a five‑for in the second, giving New Zealand genuine wicket‑taking options across conditions and match situations.
New Zealand Expected Playing 11
Tom Latham (c), Devon Conway, Kane Williamson, Rachin Ravindra, Daryl Mitchell, Tom Blundell (wk), Dean Foxcroft, Nathan Smith, Zak Foulkes, Blair Tickner, Matt Henry
ENG vs NZ Toss Prediction
Both captains will be tempted to bowl first if there is heavy cloud cover, hoping their seamers can exploit swing and seam with the new ball. The opening session could be decisive, allowing whichever side bowls first to set the tone for the rest of the match.
Pitch Report and Weather Conditions
The seamers should enjoy the early stages of this Lord’s Test, with a healthy grass covering and plenty of lateral movement on offer with the new ball. The famous slope at Lord’s will further assist fast bowlers in finding both edges of the bat, though by days three and four the surface is likely to settle into a more balanced wicket for bat and ball, with the average first‑innings score in 2025 just under 300.
Weather forecasts point to light showers and mostly cloudy skies across the five days, with mild temperatures and relatively high humidity. Those overhead conditions should keep the ball moving for most of the match and reward disciplined seam bowling.
ENG vs NZ : Who Will Win?
New Zealand come into this Test series already acclimatised after their dominant outing against Ireland, with both their batting and seam bowling in excellent working order. Their attack appears perfectly suited to English conditions, and their top six is brimming with form and confidence, whereas England are returning to red‑ball cricket after a significant break and are still trying to rebuild after a rough Ashes campaign.
On balance, the Black Caps look better prepared, more settled and in superior form.
Bet on New Zealand to win.
