NZ vs PAK Match Prediction : 41st Match, Super 8, ICC Men’s T20 World Cup, 2026
NZ vs PAK Win Probability
59%
New Zealand
41%
Pakistan
New Zealand To Win, 1.65
New Zealand plays an attacking brand of T20 cricket, something that Pakistan is not always suited to matching
Pakistan has won each of its last five matches against New Zealand at a neutral venue. It tends to do well against them in ICC events in particular.
All four matches played at this ground during the tournament were won by the team batting first so make sure you keep an eye on the toss.
NZ vs PAK Betting Tips
Sahibzada Farhan to score over 23.5 runs
Sahibzada Farhan has been the standout batter of the tournament and is almost impossible to keep quiet. The Pakistan opener has reached the 24-run mark in three of his four outings, including a stunning century and a half-century, and shows no signs of slowing down. His commanding form at the top of the order makes this one of the most bankable player props of the tournament. Back Farhan to deliver another significant contribution here.
New Zealand total runs before fall of 1st wicket — Over 24.5
Finn Allen and Tim Seifert have established themselves as one of the most explosive opening partnerships in the tournament. They have put on at least 25 runs in each of their last three innings together and boast four fifty-plus stands in their last five matches against Pakistan. Their aggressive intent at the top perfectly suits the Premadasa conditions during the Powerplay, and we fully expect them to get New Zealand off to a flying start once again. They will be challenged with spin by Pakistan, though.
Team form (Last 5 matches)
New Zealand
Pakistan
After more than 20 days of absorbing group-stage cricket, the Super 8 stage of the T20 World Cup is finally here. The top eight teams have earned their spots and now face a far sterner test as the stakes rise sharply. The first Super 8 fixture takes place on Saturday at the iconic R. Premadasa Stadium in Colombo, where New Zealand and Pakistan collide in what promises to be a tightly contested encounter.
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New Zealand vs Pakistan Head-to-Head Record
New Zealand hold the edge in recent history between these two sides, winning six of their last nine T20I meetings with Pakistan. While Pakistan have historically been strong at neutral venues, New Zealand's recent dominance will give them considerable confidence heading into this knockout-style contest.
New Zealand vs Pakistan Live-streaming and Broadcast
| Country | TV Channel | Live Streaming |
|---|---|---|
| India | Star Sports Network | Disney+ Hotstar App |
| Pakistan | PTV Sports, Ten Sports | Myco App, Tamasha App |
| Australia | — | Amazon Prime Video |
| England (UK) | Sky Sports (Cricket/Main Event) | SkyGO, NOW, Sky Sports App |
| USA & Canada | Willow TV | Willow by Cricbuzz App |
| West Indies | ESPN Caribbean | ESPN Play Caribbean |
| South Africa | SuperSport | SuperSport App |
| New Zealand | Sky Sport NZ | Sky Sport Now, Sky Go |
| Sri Lanka | Maharaja TV (TV1, Sirasa, Shakti) | ICC.tv / Maharaja TV Website |
| Bangladesh | Nagorik TV | Toffee |
| UAE & MENA | CricLife MAX | StarzPlay, StarzON |
You can find live odds, updated tips after every day's play, and more information about this match at ocbsports.com.
NZ vs PAK Team Previews
New Zealand
New Zealand navigated the group stage with relative comfort, winning three of their four matches and finishing second in Group D. However, their single defeat — against South Africa — did expose some worrying cracks that they will need to address if they are to go deep in this tournament.
The most concerning area has been the bowling attack. Lockie Ferguson and Matt Henry, two of the most experienced seamers in the squad, have struggled for wickets while leaking close to nine runs per over. The spinners have offered little relief either, with Rachin Ravindra, Glenn Phillips, and Mitchell Santner combining for just four wickets so far. With stronger batting lineups to come in the Super 8, New Zealand's bowlers urgently need to find form.
The batting, however, has been more encouraging. Finn Allen and Tim Seifert have been a consistent threat at the top, with Seifert leading the team's run charts and already registering two half-centuries in four appearances. Glenn Phillips and Rachin Ravindra both struck fifties in the last match, giving the middle order renewed confidence, while Daryl Mitchell and Mark Chapman add match-winning potential lower down the order.
NZ has the batters to counter the spin threat they will surely face in this match against Pakistan.
New Zealand Expected Playing 11
Finn Allen, Tim Seifert (WK), Rachin Ravindra, Daryl Mitchell, James Neesham, Glenn Phillips, Mitchell Santner (C), Lockie Ferguson, Matt Henry, Jacob Duffy, Kyle Jamieson
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Pakistan
Pakistan, unlike their opponents, struggled through the group stages. Their clash against India was a reality check, and they will know they were one dropped catch away from losing to the Netherlands. They must eliminate those flaws before this stage is out.
The batting remains heavily dependent on Sahibzada Farhan. His brilliant century in the previous fixture was a masterclass, and he sits atop the tournament's run-scoring charts. But Pakistan desperately need Saim Ayub to step up alongside him and provide a platform at the top. Babar Azam — Pakistan's most experienced middle-order bat — has averaged just 22 runs across four innings, a concerning return given his ability.
Salman Agha, Usman Khan, Mohammad Nawaz, and Faheem Ashraf have all struggled to impose themselves, and a collective batting improvement is essential.
On the bowling front, the spinners have been Pakistan's strongest asset. Usman Tariq leads the attack with eight wickets, receiving excellent support from Saim Ayub and Shadab Khan, who have taken five wickets each. However, Pakistan's most dangerous weapon — Shaheen Shah Afridi — has been below his best, managing only three wickets so far.
Pakistan's strategy of relying on all-rounders gives them batting depth but compromises their bowling significantly.
Pakistan Expected Playing 11
Saim Ayub, Sahibzada Farhan, Babar Azam, Salman Agha (C), Usman Khan (WK), Usman Tariq, Abrar Ahmed, Shaheen Shah Afridi, Faheem Ashraf, Mohammad Nawaz, Shadab Khan
NZ vs PAK Toss Prediction
The team winning the toss is widely expected to opt to bat first. All four matches played at this venue during the tournament have been won by the side batting first, and the trend is highly unlikely to change in a high-pressure Super 8 fixture.
Pitch Report and Weather Conditions
The R. Premadasa Stadium pitch is traditionally spin-friendly, offering significant grip and turn as the match progresses. Batters will need to pick their moments carefully, particularly against the slow bowlers in the middle overs. The Powerplay will be crucial for both sides — getting off to a strong start with the bat before the spinners take over will be a key tactical priority.
Based on conditions here, anything in excess of 160 is likely to be too much to chase.
The weather forecast raises some concern, with overcast skies expected on Saturday and a meaningful probability of rain during the match. Both teams and fans should be prepared for potential interruptions.
NZ vs PAK : Who Will Win?
This is a compelling contest between two sides carrying distinct strengths and weaknesses into the Super 8. Pakistan's spin attack is dangerous on this surface, and Farhan's electric form gives them a real match-winner at the top. But New Zealand's batting unit is more cohesive from top to bottom, and they hold a strong record at this ground — a factor that cannot be ignored in a knockout format.
We believe New Zealand's all-round depth and familiarity with Premadasa conditions will prove decisive in a close contest.
Bet on New Zealand to win.
