NZ vs AFG Match Prediction : 4th Match, ICC Men’s T20 World Cup, 2026
NZ vs AFG Win Probability
100%
Afghanistan
New Zealand To Win, 1.45
The fresher, ICC-prepared surface will reduce the impact of Afghanistan's spinners
New Zealand possesses a deeper, more explosive batting lineup suited to high-scoring contests, which is what we think this will be
The Black Caps historically start ICC tournaments with high discipline, which is crucial against unpredictable sides like Afghanistan
NZ vs AFG Betting Tips
Ibrahim Zadran to score over 22.5 runs
Ibrahim Zadran has established himself as the anchor of Afghanistan's batting lineup, boasting a career average near 32 across 61 innings. His recent form is reliable for this market: he has crossed the 23-run mark in 5 of his last 6 innings, including four half-centuries. Notably, he scored 44 in his sole appearance against the Black Caps. Given his consistency and role in stabilizing the top order on what should be a true surface, backing him to cover this line is a solid value play.
Highest individual score over 65.5 runs
This market offers great value given the likely conditions. While Chennai has a reputation for spin, early-tournament ICC pitches are typically fresh and excellent for stroke-making. In recent IPL seasons, we’ve seen Chennai produce plenty of high-scoring thrillers. With clean hitters like Devon Conway and Finn Allen likely to enjoy the ball coming onto the bat, we expect at least one batsman to go big and clear this line comfortably.
Team form (Last 5 matches)
New Zealand
Afghanistan
As the 10th edition of the T20 World Cup kicks off this weekend, New Zealand and Afghanistan will begin the proceedings for Group D on Sunday. They face off at the MA Chidambaram Stadium in Chennai—a venue that may surprise punters with better batting conditions than the historical average suggests.
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New Zealand vs Afghanistan Head-to-Head Record
The head-to-head record is perfectly balanced. The two teams have faced each other twice in this format, claiming one victory apiece.
New Zealand vs Afghanistan Live-streaming and Broadcast
| Country | TV Channel | Live Streaming |
|---|---|---|
| India | Star Sports Network | Disney+ Hotstar App |
| Pakistan | PTV Sports, Ten Sports | Myco App, Tamasha App |
| Australia | — | Amazon Prime Video |
| England (UK) | Sky Sports (Cricket/Main Event) | SkyGO, NOW, Sky Sports App |
| USA & Canada | Willow TV | Willow by Cricbuzz App |
| West Indies | ESPN Caribbean | ESPN Play Caribbean |
| South Africa | SuperSport | SuperSport App |
| New Zealand | Sky Sport NZ | Sky Sport Now, Sky Go |
| Sri Lanka | Maharaja TV (TV1, Sirasa, Shakti) | ICC.tv / Maharaja TV Website |
| Bangladesh | Nagorik TV | Toffee |
| UAE & MENA | CricLife MAX | StarzPlay, StarzON |
You can find live odds, updated tips after every day's play, and more information about this match at ocbsports.com.
NZ vs AFG Team Previews
New Zealand
New Zealand is in a rebuilding phase after missing the Super 8s in 2024, but they remain a formidable tournament team. While preparation has been disjointed due to injuries and league commitments, the conditions in Chennai could be more in their favor than most people expect.
If the pitch plays true as expected, Devon Conway (who knows this venue intimately from the IPL), Finn Allen, and Tim Seifert will relish the opportunity to score freely in the Powerplay. The middle order is packed with clean strikers like Rachin Ravindra, Glenn Phillips, and Daryl Mitchell, all of whom are capable of exploiting a good batting deck.
It will be interesting to see if NZ drops Rachin Ravindra or Devon Conway to accomodate both Seifert and Allen in the lineup.
While Mitchell Santner will still play a key holding role with the ball, the onus will be on Matt Henry and Lockie Ferguson to use their pace to unsettle the Afghan top order on a surface that offers good carry.
New Zealand Expected Playing 11
Tim Seifert (WK), Finn Allen, Rachin Ravindra, Daryl Mitchell, Glenn Phillips, Mitchell Santner (C), Matt Henry, James Neesham, Lockie Ferguson, Ish Sodhi, Mark Chapman
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Afghanistan
Afghanistan proved their class by reaching the semifinals in 2024, but they often rely heavily on their spinners choking the opposition. On a fresh ICC pitch that doesn't grip significantly, this advantage may be neutralized.
The batting responsibility falls heavily on the opening pair of Ibrahim Zadran and Rahmanullah Gurbaz. If they are removed early, the middle order of Darwish Rasooli and Sediqullah Atal may find themselves under pressure to keep up with a high required run rate.
Their world-class spin trio—Rashid Khan, Noor Ahmad, and Mujeeb Ur Rahman—will still be a threat, but if the pitch offers true bounce and limited turn, they may find it difficult to contain New Zealand's power hitters.
Afghanistan Expected Playing 11
Rahmanullah Gurbaz (WK), Ibrahim Zadran, Darwish Rasooli, Sediqullah Atal, Mohammad Nabi, Gulbadin Naib, Azmatullah Omarzai, Rashid Khan (C), Noor Ahmad, Mujeeb Ur Rahman, Fazalhaq Farooqi
NZ vs AFG Toss Prediction
Batting first is the likely strategy. On a fresh, well-prepared wicket, the captain winning the toss will likely look to put a daunting total on the board (180+) and apply scoreboard pressure, rather than banking on the pitch deteriorating significantly.
This match is relatively early in the day so dew is not going to be a concern.
Pitch Report and Weather Conditions
Contrary to the "dustbowl" stereotype, the MA Chidambaram Stadium often produces excellent batting tracks, especially early in tournaments when the squares are fresh. Since this is an ICC event, the pitch curation will prioritize balance and consistency rather than extreme home-advantage spin.
Recent IPL seasons have shown that Chennai provides true bounce and value for shots, with 200+ scores becoming more common. Spin will play a tactical role in the middle overs, but it is unlikely to be a "rank turner."
The weather will be cloudy and humid (30°C), so conditioning will be vital, but the surface itself should encourage aggressive stroke play.
NZ vs AFG: Who Will Win?
While Afghanistan is a dangerous side, their blueprint for victory often relies on slow, turning tracks. On a fresh ICC surface in Chennai that allows for trust in bounce and timing, New Zealand’s superior batting depth and power-hitting pedigree give them the clear upper hand. The Black Caps have the firepower to outscore Afghanistan in what could be a higher-scoring affair than many expect.
Also, to be able to get 45% value on backing NZ, easily the favorite in our opionion, offers excellent value for the bettors.
Bet on New Zealand to win.
