HAM vs SUR Match Prediction, T20 Blast 2026
HAM vs SURR Win Probability
44%
Hampshire
56%
Surrey
Surrey To Win, 1.65
Surrey beat Lancashire by 59 runs on May 22, showing dominant batting and bowling balance.
Surrey chased down Middlesex by 6 wickets on May 24, confirming form across conditions.
Surrey have won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings vs Hampshire.
HAM vs SURR Betting Tips
Surrey to have a higher score in the powerplay overs
Surrey's opening pair of Jason Roy and Dom Sibley have shown explosive intent from the very first over. Roy smashed 45 off 19 against Lancashire, and the combination of Roy's aggressive stroke play with Sibley's solid technique makes them difficult to contain in the first six overs. This is a strong bet worth considering.
Total match sixes - Over 12.5
With a flat Rose Bowl surface, Surrey's deep batting lineup (Roy, Jacks, Sam Curran, Tom Curran, Evans, Lawrence) and Hampshire's power hitters (Stubbs, Cartwright, Vince) all possess the ability to clear the ropes. Past meetings between these sides have consistently produced high-scoring games with plenty of maximum hits. Both teams have recorded over 10 sixes in their recent matches, making the over a solid pick.
Team form (Last 5 matches)
Hampshire
Surrey
Hampshire host Surrey at The Rose Bowl to kick-start a key early-season push in the Vitality T20 Blast. Both sides arrive with winning momentum this week, and points now can shape the South Group table quickly.
HAM bounced back with a 30-run win over Essex on May 26. SURR have opened with back-to-back wins, including a 59-run hammering of Lancashire on May 22. We expect intensity in the powerplay and sharp bowling match-ups at the death.
Hampshire vs Surrey Head-to-Head Record
Surrey have won 3 of their last 5 matches against Hampshire.
HAM vs SUR Team Previews
Hampshire
Hampshire played their way back into contention with a commanding 30-run victory over Essex, posting 200/4 before restricting Essex to 170/7. The home side will once again rely on their explosive top three, with Tristan Stubbs leading from the front after his match-defining 69 not out off 42 balls.
Hilton Cartwright has been the backbone of their batting, contributing 58 in the loss to Somerset and 46 not out off 21 against Essex, providing late-innings firepower. Joe Weatherley also chipped in with a solid 47 off 34, proving he can anchor an innings when needed.
The bowling unit will be key. Scott Currie was sensational against Essex, returning figures of 4 for 18 in his four-over spell, and will be looking to repeat that performance. Chris Wood has been a reliable partner with two wickets in the last outing, and Liam Dawson adds control through the middle overs.
If Hampshire can restrict Surrey's powerplay scoring, they have a genuine chance of pulling off an upset.
Hampshire Expected Playing 11
Toby Albert, James Vince, Joe Weatherley, Tristan Stubbs, Hilton Cartwright, Liam Dawson (C), Ben Brown (WK), Scott Currie, Chris Wood, Andrew Neal, James Fuller
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Surrey
Surrey look like the team to beat in the South Group after two comprehensive victories. In their opening match against Lancashire, they posted 213/6 with Jason Roy blazing a rapid 45 off 19 and Tom Curran smashing 49 off 20, before restricting Lancashire with Yousef Majid's 3 for 42 and an opening burst from Reece Topley. They followed it up with a composed 6-wicket chase against Middlesex, reaching 144/4 in just 18.3 overs.
Sam Curran led the chase with an unbeaten 71 off 47, while Laurie Evans added an unbeaten 34 off 21. The bowling attack has been perfectly balanced, with Gus Atkinson providing pace at the death, Chris Jordan's y Yorkers in the final overs, and Will Jacks' all-round contribution.
Dan Lawrence has been a consistent presence in the middle order, giving Surrey the depth most teams in this group lack.
Surrey Expected Playing 11
Jason Roy, Dom Sibley, Will Jacks, Dan Lawrence, Sam Curran (C), Laurie Evans, Ollie Pope (WK), Tom Curran, Gus Atkinson, Chris Jordan, Reece Topley
HAM vs SUR Toss Prediction
We expect the toss winner to bowl first, looking to restrict Surrey's explosive top order and chase a total under lights. Historical trends strongly favor the chasing side in this fixture.
Pitch Report and Weather Conditions
The Rose Bowl typically offers a flat, high-scoring surface with true bounce and minimal turn. New-ball swing can assist the quicks in the first six overs, but the pitch comes onto the bat nicely as it hardens up. For match bettors looking at total runs markets, we rate 175-185 as a competitive par score, with 190+ likely to be defendable if the bowlers execute their death-over plans.
The weather in Southampton looks perfect for an evening of cricket, with cool temperatures around 14-15 degrees Celsius and minimal rain probability. Clear skies and light winds mean conditions should not interfere with play.
- Temperature: 16.09Ā°C
- Humidity: 79%
- Wind Speed: 4.12 m/s
- Cloud Cover: 100%
- Rain Probability: 0%
HAM vs SUR: Who Will Win?
Hampshire's overseas signing Tristan Stubbs has brought fresh energy to their batting lineup, but their bowling attack will struggle to contain Surrey's deep middle order. Expect a competitive contest, but Surrey's class and current form should see them through.
Pro Tip: Back Sam Curran for 30+ runs given his unbeaten 71 off 47 in the last outing.
Bet on Surrey to win.
