AS vs MR Match Prediction : 38th Match, Big Bash League, 2025-2026
AS vs MR Win Probability
94%
Adelaide Strikers
6%
Melbourne Renegades
Adelaide Strikers To Win, 1.80
The return of Alex Carey significantly strengthens the Strikers’ batting
Adelaide’s pace attack is particularly effective in the powerplay
The Strikers boast a well-balanced spin unit combining youth and experience
AS vs MR Betting Tips
Melbourne Renegades to hit a boundary four in the first over
The Renegades’ openers play with clear intent in the powerplay and are not afraid to attack from ball one. With Tim Seifert coming off a fluent 66 in his previous innings and the top order looking to set the tone early, backing Melbourne to find a boundary in the opening over is a sensible low-risk option.
Adelaide Strikers total runs before the first dismissal to be under 22.5 runs
The Strikers’ opening combination has been inconsistent throughout the season, struggling to convert starts into meaningful partnerships. Their recent collapse to just 83 all out against the Stars highlights ongoing top-order vulnerability. With their last opening stand lasting only eight runs, Adelaide are once again at risk of losing an early wicket, making the under 22.5 first-wicket partnership a strong value bet.
Team form (Last 5 matches)
Adelaide Strikers
Melbourne Renegades
Neither side has dominated this season, with both teams sitting on six points from three wins. However, Adelaide hold the edge through a superior net run rate and the advantage of playing at home. Those factors, combined with a stronger bowling unit, tilt this matchup in the Strikers’ favour.
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Adelaide Strikers vs Melbourne Renegades Head-to-Head Record
The Adelaide Strikers won the previous encounter between the two sides. Prior to that, the Melbourne Renegades had beaten Adelaide in their two earlier meetings.
Adelaide Strikers vs Melbourne Renegades Live-streaming and Broadcast
In Australia, the Big Bash League is broadcast on Channel 7 and Fox Cricket, with live streaming options available through Kayo Sports, Foxtel Go, and 7plus.
For viewers in the Indian subcontinent, coverage in India is available on the Star Sports Network and streamed via Disney+ Hotstar. Fans in Pakistan can watch the matches on PTV Sports and Ten Sports, while those in Bangladesh can also tune in via the Star Sports Network feeds.
In the United Kingdom, Sky Sports Cricket holds the exclusive broadcast rights, allowing fans to stream the action live on Sky Go and NOW.
You can find live odds, updated tips after every day's play, and more information about this match at ocbscores.com.
AS vs MR Team Previews
Adelaide Strikers
Although the Strikers fell short against the Stars, there were positives to take from a difficult, low-scoring match. The lower order showed resilience, with Cameron Boyce’s 20 off 18 and Liam Scott’s 18 adding late resistance.
More importantly, the bowling unit displayed impressive discipline. Liam Scott’s 2 for 12 in 2.1 overs, supported by Jamie Overton (1 for 19) and Hasan Ali (1 for 21), strangled the opposition in the powerplay and restricted the Stars to 13 for 2 early on. This ability to strike with the new ball remains Adelaide’s biggest strength.
If the top order can show better application and allow the middle and lower order to build on a platform, the Strikers have the bowling firepower to defend competitive totals at home.
Adelaide Strikers Expected Playing 11
Alex Carey (wk), Matthew Short (c), Chris Lynn, Liam Scott, Jason Sangha, Jamie Overton, Harry Manenti, Hasan Ali, Cameron Boyce, Lloyd Pope, Tabraiz Shamsi
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Melbourne Renegades
The Renegades endured a torrid outing against the Scorchers after opting to bowl first and conceding 219 for 7. Sam Elliott’s impressive 4 for 28 was a rare bright spot, as Hassan Khan, Gurinder Sandhu, and Will Sutherland were all taken apart.
The chase never gained momentum. Early dismissals for Josh Brown, Mohammad Rizwan, and Harry Dixon left the innings in tatters, and although Jake Fraser-McGurk’s blistering 42 off 18 hinted at a revival, the middle-order collapse soon followed. A recurring theme this season has been the lack of partnerships, a flaw that continues to cost them matches.
Heading to Adelaide after three consecutive defeats, the Renegades will need a near-complete performance to challenge a disciplined Strikers outfit.
Melbourne Renegades Expected Playing 11
Tim Seifert (wk), Josh Brown, Jake Fraser-McGurk, Mohammad Rizwan (wk), Hassan Khan, Harry Dixon, Will Sutherland (c), Sam Elliott, Gurinder Sandhu, Brendan Doggett, Adam Zampa
AS vs MR Toss Prediction
Adelaide have chosen to bowl first in four matches this season, and conditions under lights at Adelaide Oval generally favour chasing. Expect both captains to opt to bowl first if they win the toss.
Pitch Report and Weather Conditions
Adelaide Oval offers assistance to fast bowlers early, with movement and bounce in the powerplay. Once the ball softens, batting becomes easier and scoring rates tend to rise sharply. A first-innings total of 170–175 should be considered par.
The weather is forecast to be sunny and dry, with only a light breeze expected. The surface is likely to be hard and true, ideal for stroke play later in the innings.
AS vs MR: Who Will Win?
While Adelaide are still refining their consistency, they have made home advantage count, with two of their three wins coming at Adelaide Oval. Facing a Renegades side on a three-match losing streak and struggling for partnerships, the Strikers are well placed to capitalize.
Bet on Adelaide Strikers to win.
